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　　Enterprises are helpless and employees are unwilling, all of which are among them.

　　Wenyu Hunting Cloud Network ID: ilieyun

　　Author Zhou Jiali Sheng Jiaying Han Wenjing Su Shu

　　Edit | Lin Wenlong

　　Under the epidemic, a large number of enterprises are suffering, and they will only start in 2020, and the theme of most enterprises will become "live".

　　In the case that it is difficult to carry out business normally, it has become a temporary choice for enterprises to "survive", reduce wages or lay off employees.

　　"I laid off the employee who was rewarded at the annual meeting", "I lost 90,000 a day and laid off 20% of the employees", "I’m ready to be alone", "I’ve just been in the company for four months, and I’m laid off", "You only have two choices, agree or agree" ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

　　The following is their self-report, slightly edited.

　　I laid off the employee who was rewarded at the annual meeting.

　　Narrator Zhao Peng, founder of a maternal and child technology enterprise.

　　We come from Xiamen, and we are a start-up enterprise of maternal and child technology. We mainly provide services for maternal and child travel through the time-sharing business of baby carriages, which means that we attach great importance to offline and rely on service places such as business districts and scenic spots.

　　In August 2018, our first batch of self-help strollers was officially launched in a shopping mall in Xiamen. In January 2019, we launched the expansion of major cities in China and set up branches in Shanghai and Shenzhen, so that we can radiate major cities in East China and South China. Throughout 2019, we completed the laying and operation in more than 100 outlets in 11 cities across the country, serving nearly 100,000 users.

　　It can be said that in 2019, our speed is still ok, and our results and data are also quite optimistic. During the Spring Festival, shopping malls and tourist attractions were crowded, and the original plan of the team was to work overtime.

　　But the plan couldn’t keep up with the change, and the sudden epidemic broke everything. When the mall is closed, our business is also shut down, and it is stressful every day.

　　To put it simply, we won’t last three months.

　　After the outbreak of the epidemic, masks became just needed, and the team immediately ordered a batch of medical masks through relevant channels, and urgently launched the small program group purchase page, giving priority to our car users at the cost price, providing them with value-added services, and also giving back to users for their trust in us. After all, the purchase volume of a single family is too small, and the factory is not willing to take orders, so we want to make a platform to help everyone purchase, and it is the key to survive. However, it backfired. In the end, for various reasons, the manufacturer could not deliver the goods for a refund, so we returned the money to the user. It’s a pity that we started this activity quite early in the special period.

　　There are about 30 people in our team. At present, I am in the office with several other core executives, and other employees are still working online at home. The routine protective equipment in the office is also complete, except for masks, which are more troublesome and need to be distributed by lottery. Everyone is equipped with about 6 to ensure daily needs.

　　What I am most worried about now is when the offline outlets will return to normal. Although we have data showing that some outlets, such as those in Shanghai and Shenzhen, are used by sporadic customers, they are all at a very low single-digit level, even less than the usual fraction.

　　Coupled with the high cost of venue rent, manpower and other hard costs, a lot of money is lost every day, but it has not entered. In order to alleviate the financial pressure of the company, we have to go out of the step of "layoffs" and reduce the manpower by about 10%.

　　In fact, this decision has been negotiated with the other two shareholders long ago, but I still put it off for a week, always expecting that there will be a specific medicine or the situation will suddenly turn around. But I really can’t wait, and the expenses are still quite large.

　　There is also an employee I just rewarded at the annual meeting, but I can’t help it, because his position is most affected by the epidemic, which means that he may have nothing to do for several months.

　　I am also very sad to make such a decision, but I have no choice but to make it through. If I don’t make it through this time, the company will be gone and everyone will be gone! I want to wait until the epidemic is over and the company is back on track, and I want to invite the comrades who left back. This is not empty talk, but a real plan.

　　In order to survive, we also tried every possible way. For example, we went to negotiate with many high-priced, medium and large-scale chain brands such as offline maternal and child stores, parenting education enterprises, catering, tourism and hotel industries. They are also the hardest hit areas of the epidemic, with no passenger flow and no revenue, and they are very anxious every day.

　　Although it is difficult for us, what is better is that we have a platform and there are customers in the platform. The epidemic will eventually pass, and everyone will definitely go to offline service places for consumption. Then we will pre-sell these products that will definitely be consumed on the platform at preferential prices, and let some funds come back first to survive this period.

　　For users, they get the same service at a more favorable price than usual; For businesses in offline service places, even if a part of the price system is sacrificed, with cash flow, it is possible to survive.

　　During the recent period, I watched several movies, one of which was about Churchill’s "The Dark Hour", in which there was a line: No matter how horrible it is, we must strive for victory, no matter how long and difficult the road is, because we cannot survive without victory.

　　Just like this line, no matter how difficult the road is, I will try my best to keep my company alive. We have to fight back to have a chance to survive.

　　Lose 90 thousand a day and lay off 20% employees

　　Narrator Jiang Weijian, founder of a restaurant chain brand.

　　This year is the fifth year of my business. Up to now, the company brand has operated dozens of direct stores and signed nearly 100 contracts nationwide.

　　Affected by the epidemic, most of our stores are closed, and only five direct stores have resumed business in an individual form, but they only provide take-away business. In fact, we are engaged in physical retail, and it is also the first time to try online sales. Orders are mainly from old members. Basically, a store has an average of about 3,000 orders a day.

　　But this is just a drop in the bucket. The rent, manpower and the cost of various raw materials inventory are squeezing the small cash flow every day. We have calculated that there are basically losses of more than 90 thousand yuan a day, and there are more than 2.5 million yuan a month.

　　Compared with those big companies, our small companies are even worse, because big companies will have some policy resources, and if they want money, they can get it through all channels. And we are the most uncomfortable, and we don’t expect much money from the outside world, so we still have to open up sources and reduce expenditure within the company.

　　For us, if the epidemic can end before April, there may be nothing. However, if it is still spreading, we may cut off those unprofitable direct-operated stores. Otherwise, the headquarters office may be removed and all the unnecessary expenses that should be cut off will be cut off.

　　To tell the truth, in small business groups, I think our losses should be less. Most chain stores with a scale of 100 basically lose one or two million dollars a day, while we are all small stores, and the rent and employment are relatively less than them. I calculated that the cash flow in our account will last for six or seven months, which is not a big problem.

　　On the franchisee’s side, we basically exempted him from the management fees for these two or three months. There are more than 100 stores across the country, and the management fees are about 1000 yuan. We are certainly not the worst in this industry, but no one can feel it anyway.

　　The pressure on the headquarters is relatively high, and no one can change the objective facts of this big environment now. It is definitely necessary for everyone to share it. In order to survive, all of our company only get the minimum salary of 1,000 yuan or 2,000 yuan, and at the same time they have laid off employees, with a range of about 20%.

　　However, the original 10% elimination system in our company is strict. Now basically, for example, a store used to use three people, but now it only uses one person; Employees who have not passed the probation period and feel that they are not particularly suitable are basically laid off.

　　The epidemic is ruthless, but there is a "crisis" and there is an "opportunity". For us, on the one hand, the focus of our brand this year is to do online take-out, so it is our direction of strength this year that the same city distribution includes online take-out. The outbreak of the epidemic has forced us to speed up preparations in this regard.

　　In addition, last year, we mainly operated directly, and this year, we will focus on joining the whole country and becoming a relatively mature catering brand. We were weak before joining this piece. The epidemic just gave us two or three months to quickly improve the investment promotion system.

　　At this time, we still don’t like things, we don’t care about ourselves, and no one can change things outside, so we can only block them and have means to hide them. What happens, we will face it in what way, and what cannot be changed can only be sad.

　　We also made it from a small scale bit by bit. Along the way, we have experienced life-and-death moments several times, and this time it may be better than the life-and-death moments in the past.

　　At the end of 2016, there will be 100,000 yuan in cash on the account, and there will be no money to pay the completion capital to the employees. That is life and death. And at that time, everyone was living well, only I was on the borderline of life and death. Now, everyone is facing the same problem, and we may find that our problems are a little less. This is the "spirit of Ah Q". Whether we can survive or not depends on our own skills.

　　I didn’t lay off staff, but the staff didn’t come.

　　Narrator Wang Qing, owner of an Internet cafe.

　　When I was a child, my dream was to be the owner of an Internet cafe. I could play games and collect money at the same time. Now I’m in Suzhou, running four theme Internet cafes on and off, and my dream has come true just after I turned 30.

　　However, the sudden epidemic really caught me off guard and immediately shut down the store. Failure to open the door means that there is no cash flow, and there are a lot of hard costs such as rent and manpower every day. Now one of our stores loses about 10 thousand yuan a month, and four stores lose 40 thousand yuan. It’s uncomfortable!

　　In order to reduce the loss, I shut down the telecom network fee, and the facade rented by the private landlord still has to pay rent; The state, the property side promised to reduce or exempt for two months.

　　In terms of manpower, at first, I thought that the epidemic was short, and the wages at that time were normal. Later, it became more and more serious. I negotiated with my employees to let them wait for the door to open before coming to work. But out of a total of 16 people, only five people agreed to come, and two-thirds of them directly found jobs in their hometown factories.

　　In terms of capital reserve, because of the bad market, there was no dividend among our partners years ago, and there is still some money in the account, which can be spent for the time being. It has not reached the point where it needs loans and other channels to seek capital investment.

　　However, the Internet cafe industry has had a hard time in recent years. The survival of the fittest in the market, the popularity of client games declined, and the growth rate of online games slowed down as a whole. Coupled with the rise of mobile mobile games, the business of Internet cafes is getting worse and worse, and it is even called "sunset industry".

　　Our operation in recent years is also not optimistic. When we first started in 2015, because it was cheap, all the nights were full. Now customers are looking at the environment, service and mood, and the price is not so important. At present, there are only shops near the university town, and there are quite a lot of people who take the night package, but the shops in the urban area are different. From 6 pm to 10 pm, the machines are full. After 10 pm, there are fewer people, and there are about 20 people who take the night package.

　　In the narrow track, it is always the turn to play tricks with the net fish Internet cafe. Once, Net Fish Internet Cafe also found us to join us. Their management and brand are good, but as an investor and a boss, they will not join. I have calculated an account, although it is free to join, but all the manpower, equipment and even decoration in the later period have to go through the net fish Internet cafe, and they have to be drawn from the turnover.

　　This directly determines that after joining, the expenses are greater than the income, and it will take at least two years to return to the capital. And I run it myself, and I can turn it over in a year or so. I think, Net Fish Internet Cafe has led the Internet cafe industry into a high-end stage, including net fish milk tea and services, but now there is no bright spot, and the investment in individual equipment is also great. Now the high-end stores are almost the same as Net Fish. The market is so scattered that they can’t eat it. No matter what fish or coffee, the internet cafe industry is already on the edge of a cliff.

　　On the one hand, nowadays, young people are keeping in good health by Buddhism. Generally, there are few people in the venue after 2 o’clock in the morning, and the era of surfing the Internet all night is gone. On the other hand, the rise of mobile games has had a great impact on Internet cafes. If PC-side games are not updated or newly released, it will be difficult for Internet cafes to survive in the future.

　　Although the store is running smoothly now, I think: now that I am an adult after 00, fewer and fewer people will go to Internet cafes in the future, so the Internet cafe industry should also adapt to the new era, such as the current mobile game pavilion and VR e-sports pavilion, which will be my new direction in the future.

　　From Internet cafes to Internet cafes, to the current e-sports hall, from the first ten stores to the four stores that are now exhausted, I have witnessed the ups and downs of the industry for so many years. Now, affected by the epidemic, I can only walk and watch. If the industry has money to do it, we should do it again.

　　I’m ready to be alone.

　　Narrator Zhou Yang, founder of parent-child children’s drama.

　　On January 20th, as usual, I packed my bags and left my company in Wuhan to go back to my hometown in Jingzhou for the New Year. At that time, Zhong Nanshan had just announced the existence of human-to-human transmission in Covid-19. No one expected that a month later, this "black swan" would have such a profound impact on everyone.

　　As a parent-child children’s drama team in Wuhan, I originally planned to start the first national tour at the end of February, but now the tour plan has been put on hold, and the epidemic has not yet reached the turning point, and I have to resume work in the foreseeable future. In the face of the company that has stopped working for a month, I made a decision to lay off employees. "Without layoffs, the company will not last for a few months. “

　　"All the executive team members of the company have been cut off, leaving only the product research and development team to continue to make products." When I made this decision, I communicated with each laid-off employee one-on-one, and said that I would invite the employees back after the start of work and make some financial compensation. But I also know that this is a false proposition, "everyone in the industry is not immune."

　　Affected by the epidemic, the offline entertainment industry stopped operating all the way. Compared with the catering industry, entertainment is not just needed, especially as a segmented live performance, which has the nature of assembly. "Even if the epidemic is controlled, everyone will be worried about the uncertainty of the virus. Unless the virus disappears completely, the industry will recover."

　　But this means that a longer recovery cycle is needed. For a small and medium-sized enterprise, I don’t know whether I can hold out until then, to be honest.

　　"Unlike the education industry, we can switch to online operations, especially for young children’s dramas, and pay more attention to the atmosphere and experience in offline scenes. Online performances cannot be immersive." Nevertheless, my team and I are still studying how to turn the performance training business into online teaching.

　　"I really don’t know how long the epidemic will last. If I stop working for another month, I may dissolve everyone. I’m ready to leave me alone. “

　　I didn’t sign the resignation agreement, and I can’t get the next offer.

　　Narrator: liujing, a programmer of an Internet company.

　　Two weeks before the Chinese New Year, the company began to inform colleagues to resign by agreement, and I was also on the list. Although the company’s unified approach is to leave the company by agreement, it is actually a disguised layoff.

　　The company laid off 40% of its colleagues for some internal reasons. I was not surprised when the personnel came to consult with me, because almost all of our department was laid off because of the company’s business development needs. In fact, I can understand the company’s layoffs, but I don’t quite agree with some practices of the company in layoffs.

　　Violent layoffs in the company are also a chilling place for us laid-off old employees. I have been in the company for two years, and I was laid off years ago. The year-end bonus and the double salary at the end of the year are all gone, and the company only provides N+1 compensation for layoffs, which I can’t accept. So, I haven’t signed it yet, which means I still belong to the company employees.

　　More than half of the people in the company have signed off, and a small number of them, including me, still want to fight for their due rights. We planned to take the road of arbitration years before we signed it. However, I never expected to postpone my return to work because of the epidemic. My heart began to waver from this time.

　　I didn’t hurry to leave my job years ago because I didn’t expect the company to put it off until years later. Plus, I already have nearly four offer, and I feel that I can solve the resignation agreement before I start my new job.

　　The epidemic has become a stumbling block among them, and it has also made me think about whether I should go back to my favorite place to find a new job.

　　Among the offer, I am satisfied with one, and I have already planned to sign with this company. All pre-employment activities are going on normally, but because the resignation agreement is not available, the company’s employment notice can’t come down.

　　I’m in an awkward position now. I didn’t get the resignation agreement of my left hand, and the offer of my right hand was delayed because of the delay in returning to work. The company didn’t sign the resignation agreement, and I still belong to the company’s employees, but the company took away all our office tools and permissions, and the delay also made it impossible for me to return to the company to work normally.

　　Now, I have been in the house rented in Beijing, and I am at a loss. It has been nearly a month since I came back to Beijing from my hometown. I wake up every day to see what plans my colleagues who have not signed the company have, or just read books and play games. This leisure time without work makes me panic.

　　If I hadn’t met this epidemic, at least this time, I could go out to travel and be chic with my friends. Now I am trapped in a rented place and eat instant noodles every day. This kind of life is really wronged.

　　All along, I’m not too worried about being laid off. I came to this company after my master’s degree and stayed here until now. I also believe that I am not afraid of unemployment with my own ability. After all, the next family need not worry. However, I have never thought about the situation like this. I can’t retreat and I can’t enter.

　　I’ve been running all the way and I haven’t stopped. This time suddenly gave me nearly a month’s free time, but it made me think about whether to stay in Beijing and continue running. Every day, with the crowded people, I rush forward. I began to hesitate to leave Beijing, find a comfortable place and find a stable job, but I was unwilling.

　　I didn’t expect my firm heart to waver sometimes. It stands to reason that I have been "unemployed" for a month. This month, I have been in a state of suspension and waiting for work, holding a minimum wage of 3,000 yuan and living in a daze. But this 3000 yuan is not enough to pay off half of my mortgage.

　　On February 25th, the company colleagues also planned to go to the Labor Bureau for arbitration together, although I don’t know the result. But I still hope to end the present state as soon as possible. I’m worried that if I rest for a long time, I’ll erase my initial passion.

　　I have just been in the company for four months, and I was laid off.

　　Narrator Xiao Ju, an employee of an online financial company.

　　"It’s finally my turn." Less than a year after I worked, I caught up with the layoffs.

　　On the morning of February 24th, I put on a mask and set off from Foshan. As usual, I took this familiar subway Guangfo line. It only took me less than 30 minutes to travel from my home in Foshan to my company in Guangzhou. I once "showed off" to my friends how convenient it was to get from my home to my company.

　　This may be my last visit to the company, and my purpose is clear: to make a second negotiation with the supervisor and discuss the issue of layoffs.

　　"Before the layoffs happened, the company did a good job in all aspects, especially in terms of benefits and humanistic care, and never mistreated employees." I graduated in 2019 and came to Guangzhou, an internet finance company, after the National Day last year.

　　"The company has been established for four or five years, with a small scale of about 500 people, but it has always done a good job in caring for employees. I am also very comfortable working here. " Annual leave, welfare leave, paid sick leave, care money, energy coin punching and other benefits are available.

　　"I don’t understand why the company handled it like this at the last moment. The leader asked me to apply for resignation voluntarily, which means there is no compensation, which surprised me." On February 3rd, the company informed me to resume work remotely, so I started telecommuting at home as required. On the evening of February 9th, a video conference was held inside the company, proposing that each department should reduce the labor cost by 30%. The reason is very simple. The company failed in financing years ago, and with the impact of the epidemic, it was difficult for the company to operate normally.

　　I’m the newest employee in the group, and I’m only four months old. I was prepared that I might be laid off, but when I really received the notice, I was still a little surprised and unwilling. "On the 20th, I received a formal verbal notice from my superior leader. How to put it, I was a little surprised but prepared. It’s one thing to know that it really happened to me."

　　The company requires each department to reduce the labor cost by 30%. There are 16 people in my after-sales service department, which is divided into three sections. The department decided to cut one in each section, making a total of three cuts. I am the third. "I am the latest recruit in my section, and my work is relatively easy to hand over, so the company decided to dismiss me. This is the original words of our supervisor."

　　Layoff is only the first step. Starting from this month, the company will also reduce expenses by reducing employee performance, and everyone’s performance bonus will be reduced by 30%. "If one person can be laid off, the remaining employees don’t have to be reduced by 30% each. I don’t know exactly how much. It should be 10% to 20%."

　　It is understandable that the company has difficulties, but it is not easy for employees. If they voluntarily apply for resignation, the risks will actually be completely passed on to employees, and the rights and interests of employees will not be guaranteed. I have been in the company for less than a year, and I only hope to pay compensation for half a month’s basic salary.

　　"I talked to the supervisor, and he said it was not up to him to decide. Let me find someone, then I will find someone to negotiate again." There are dozens of people who are in the same situation as me. Up to now, I haven’t been able to wait for the company’s reply. "We have discussed it well. If it really doesn’t work, everyone can apply for labor arbitration together, and some can be compensated."

　　In fact, as early as years ago, I already saw some bad signs. "In December last year, many financial planners left their jobs, and some old and new employees left. I think it was caused by the big environment. It was not until the epidemic came that I found that small companies were so vulnerable to risks."

　　Today, I am still negotiating with the company and looking for new job opportunities. The recruitment market in Guangzhou is much more optimistic than I expected. I have submitted several resumes and am waiting for a reply.

　　"You only have two choices, agree or agree."

　　Narrator: Aiqi, an employee of the Guangzhou headquarters of famous products.

　　At about eleven o’clock on the evening of 21st, I received an email from the company "Proposal for Overcoming the Hard Times". The company proposed two initiatives: salary reduction and leave without pay, and gave employees two options of "agree" and "disagree". I clicked "disagree", but I couldn’t submit it.

　　"If you don’t agree with that proposal, a message will pop up asking you to send an email to HR mailbox. In fact, you can’t submit a disagreement." This is a proposal on the surface, but it is actually a notice, and employees have no choice.

　　That night, a dozen colleagues in my department and I didn’t make a choice. Some colleagues asked the person in charge of the personnel department what to do if the proposal was not agreed, and the reply was: I don’t know for the time being.

　　I have been working in the Guangzhou headquarters of famous products for more than a year, and even though I was affected by the epidemic, my work did not slack off at all. Since February 10th, I have been working from home. Later, the company implemented a shift system, and everyone went back to the office for one to two days.

　　Most of the company’s stores in China are franchised, and the store rent, store staff salaries and inventory are borne by franchisees. The company does not need to provide too much cash flow protection for this part of its main business. I hope to get a clearer explanation for the statement that the company has no cash flow.

　　It is understandable that the company has encountered difficulties in special periods, and the performance of the store will be affected in February, but it is unreasonable that the salaries in January and March, which have not yet started, are all reduced. In addition, the company did not discuss with employees, did not mention replacement and compensation measures, and unilaterally proposed to leave without pay, which was also not in line with legal procedures.

　　Originally, the wages of grass-roots employees were not high, and 30% of their wages were deducted from social security. How much is left? Leaving without pay is actually forcing you to leave in disguise. Our company has thousands of stores and tens of thousands of employees all over the country. I didn’t expect such a big company to be forced to retreat without compensation.

　　There is also a clause in the proposal that if the workload is not saturated, it will be discounted if the salary is reduced. To put it bluntly, the company has the final say, so I don’t know if the employees on the job will be treated improperly again.

　　Because I didn’t reply late on the evening of 21st, at about eleven o’clock on the morning of 22nd, HR called me and gave me two choices: 1. Leave my job by myself and work until the end of the month, and my salary will be paid in January and February; 2, leave without pay, pay 80% salary in January, 70% salary in February, and leave without pay in March. If you don’t reply before 2 pm, you will leave your job without pay by default.

　　This time, I still didn’t give an answer. Until the evening of 23rd, I received an announcement from the company’s WeChat, and the proposal on salary payment in January was adjusted and changed to normal payment.

　　This is good news, but I still can’t accept the result. I hope the company can give me a reasonable explanation for the "unreasonable" statement in the proposal.

　　(At the request of the interviewee, Zhao Peng, Jiang Weijian, Wang Qing, liujing, Zhou Yang, Xiaoju and Aiqi are pseudonyms.)

　　Communicate with interesting people, and the cloud hunting readers welcome you.

　　(WeChat: lieyunwang07)

This article first appeared on WeChat WeChat official account: Hunting Cloud Network. The content of the article belongs to the author’s personal opinion and does not represent Hexun.com’s position. Investors should operate accordingly, at their own risk.

[Editor’s note]

In the past first half of 2022, macro hotspots at home and abroad were frequent, the A-share market was first suppressed and then promoted, the depth of popular tracks was adjusted, and the market style was drastically switched.

In the second half of 2022, how will the capital market be interpreted? On July 4th, The Paper and Wall Street jointly launched the "Road to Economic Market Rejuvenation"-"Chief Wired" 2022 Mid-term Market Outlook series live broadcast, face to face with well-known chief economists and industry analysts, and looked forward to the macro-economy, market trends and industry configuration in the second half of the year.

This issue is a dialogue with Zhao Jinhou, managing director of Shenwan Hongyuan Research Institute, director of consumer goods research department and chief analyst. Zhao Jinhou has been engaged in the analysis of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industries and listed companies for 25 years, and is currently one of the most senior industry analysts in China stock market. Not only is he familiar with the development course and trend of agricultural industry in China, but he is also familiar with the actual situation of various sub-industries and the fundamentals of related listed companies. Zhao Jinhou is the first platinum analyst of New Fortune.

The agricultural sector is expected to continue to rebound in the second half of the year.

Zhao Jinhou said that in the first half of this year, the overall performance of the agricultural sector was good. Driven by the two hot spots of rising international food prices and the pig cycle, the market was good.

"In the second half of the year, what will be the market of the agricultural sector? It is mainly necessary to pay attention to the factors that support the strength of the agricultural sector in the first half of the year, and whether it will change." Zhao jinhou said.

Zhao Jinhou pointed out that the first is food price, which also needs to distinguish between international food price and domestic food price, because the driving factors and logic behind them are not the same. There are many factors affecting international food prices. Among them, from the perspective of supply and demand, it does not support a large-scale and sustained rise, and it should be said that the probability of falling back is greater.

"Domestic food prices are not entirely determined by supply and demand. China’s grain policy has played a very important role in the long-term trend of domestic grain prices. Generally speaking, although domestic food prices will be affected by international prices to some extent in the short term, there will be periodic fluctuations. But the overall trend is still steady and rising. " Zhao jinhou said.

In terms of pig price, Zhao Jinhou said that there is little logical difference between judging pig price and food price, and it is also determined by supply and demand. However, the pig price has increased the game between slaughter and breeding. Because pigs can be pressed and sold in advance. Generally speaking, after moderate consolidation in the future, pig prices will continue to rise, but the pace of increase is uneven.

"In the second half of the year, as the fundamentals of the industry continue to pick up, the industry as a whole is expected to shift from loss to profit, from less profit to more profit. Next, the main concern of the agricultural sector is the recovery of the industry boom. " Zhao jinhou pointed out.

International food prices are affected by many factors such as supply, demand and currency. In the next step, soybean prices are under pressure and wheat prices are still supported.

In terms of international food prices, Zhao Jinhou pointed out that supply, demand, currency and other three elements together constitute the fluctuation system of international food prices.

"Specifically, the international food price is mainly the price of international trade, and the main factors affecting the supply of major producing countries include geographical conflicts in major producing countries, local weather, export restrictions of exporting countries, and international oil prices. Among them, there are two ways in which international oil prices affect food prices. One is to push up the cost of agricultural materials and fertilizers, and the other is to bring about changes in supply. " Zhao jinhou said.

Zhao Jinhou explained that, for example, with the rise of international oil price, the demand for ethanol fuel will increase, and more corn and sugarcane will be used to produce fuel ethanol, and theoretically the supply as food will decrease.

"In terms of demand, the total consumption as a whole increases with the increase of population. Although the global population is currently increasing moderately, from the perspective of international trade, once the price rises, countries will worry about the guarantee of their future grain imports, and they will increase imports and replenish stocks quickly, which will also affect international food prices in stages. " Zhao jinhou further pointed out.

In terms of currency, Zhao Jinhou said that at present, major international agricultural products have futures prices, loose money markets and inflation expectations, and the support of unfavorable weather will push up the futures prices of agricultural products, including grain futures prices, and fluctuations in the futures market will further affect the spot.

"In general, supply, demand, currency and other factors have comprehensively promoted the rise and fall of international food prices. However, the core foundation is the fluctuation of supply and production. " Zhao jinhou stressed.

Looking back, in terms of varieties, Zhao Jinhou believes that the important influencing factor of soybeans is the reduction of production. The decrease of soybean planting area in the United States in the previous year led to the reduction of production, and last year it was mainly caused by drought in South America. This year, the market generally predicts that the planting area will increase. Therefore, if there is no major natural disaster, the supply of soybeans will increase. Therefore, from the perspective of supply, the price of soybeans should go down from a high level.

"In terms of corn, the overall output will increase. In recent years, corn production has not been reduced, and the price is largely pushed up by the rise in oil prices. " Zhao jinhou said.

With regard to wheat, Zhao Jinhou pointed out that the increase in wheat price was mainly caused by overseas geopolitical conflicts, and the stock could not become an effective supply, which led to a decrease in supply in international trade and pushed up the price. At present, although the stocks of relevant countries are expected to be released to a certain extent, the wheat yield will definitely be reduced in the new planting year. Therefore, the price of wheat is still supported.

Domestic food prices have risen steadily.

Regarding domestic food prices, Zhao Jinhou said that the analytical logic of China’s food prices is different from that of international food prices, because China’s food prices are not completely determined by supply and demand.

"China’s grain policy will play a very important role in the medium and long-term trend of overall domestic grain prices." Zhao jinhou pointed out.

Zhao Jinhou said that China’s grain harvest has been achieved for 18 consecutive years, and last year’s grain output was also very sufficient. From the perspective of supply, there is no shortage of food in China, especially rations. Such as wheat and rice, are absolutely safe and well stocked. Therefore, from the perspective of supply, there is no reason for the sharp rise in domestic food prices.

"However, in fact, since 2004, China’s food prices have gone up all the way. On the one hand, there is a continuous bumper harvest, and on the other hand, food prices are constantly rising. The most important factor in this is the government’s price guidance. " Zhao jinhou said.

Zhao Jinhou pointed out that China is now implementing the minimum purchase price for rations. The so-called minimum purchase price means that countries with relevant prices will open their doors and set the bottom line of market prices, which highlights the state’s attention and support for agriculture, rural areas and farmers. At present, China attaches unprecedented importance to food, especially rations.

"At the same time, due to the rising cost of grain planting in recent years, both the cost of land transfer and the cost of labor have led to a decline in farmers’ grain-growing benefits to some extent. Therefore, in order to ensure the planting area of grain and the enthusiasm of farmers, it is necessary to ensure the reasonable profit of grain planting. In addition to subsidies, it also brings the requirement that food prices must be moderately raised. " Zhao jinhou said.

Therefore, next, Zhao Jinhou judged that although domestic food prices may be affected by international food prices in the short term, there will be periodic fluctuations, but the overall trend is still steady and rising.

"It should be pointed out that because the increase in food, especially rations, will have an impact on the living standards of residents, it is impossible to increase substantially, and the increase must be moderate." Zhao jinhou stressed.

Domestic food prices, especially rations, will be relatively independent.

Regarding the synchronization of domestic food prices and international food prices, Zhao Jinhou said that this aspect involves the issue of food import dependence.

"Therefore, from the perspective of rations, I think that domestic prices and international prices will not be synchronized, and domestic rations prices are relatively independent." Zhao jinhou pointed out.

Zhao Jinhou further pointed out that due to the large domestic soybean import and the dominant position of soybean price in the world, the domestic soybean price may be synchronized with the international price.

The increase in food prices is beneficial to the seed sector to a certain extent, and the competitiveness of seed companies with strong scientific research strength is expected to be further moderately improved.

In terms of food security, Zhao Jinhou emphasized that in essence, the food crisis refers to how many people can afford food.

"From the perspective of population and purchasing power, rising food prices have caused more people to be unable to afford food, and then a food crisis has occurred, resulting in more people needing assistance. Therefore, it is the rise in food prices that aggravated the food crisis, not the food crisis that triggered the rise in food prices. " Zhao jinhou pointed out.

In the next step, food prices are generally rising steadily. Therefore, from the perspective of industrial chain, rising food prices are unfriendly to its downstream, including feed food processing, food manufacturing, breeding, etc., and there are problems of rising costs. Unless the relevant costs can be passed on, its profitability will inevitably be compressed to some extent.

"For the seed industry, an important positive logic is the rise in food prices. Because in the A-share market, there are not many related targets for grain planting, and the seed sector is a natural beneficiary. " Zhao jinhou said.

However, Zhao Jinhou also stressed that the benefits of rising food prices to the seed sector still need to be treated dialectically.

"On the one hand, with the increase in food prices, the enthusiasm for grain planting has increased, and the planting area has increased, which has brought about an increase in the demand for seeds. On the other hand, the main business of seed companies in China belongs to outsourcing, that is, the mode is to contract their own land and give farmers corresponding funds per mu for planting. Therefore, in the rising food prices, farmers will have new requirements for income and more expenses. For seed enterprises, the macro demand has increased, but the cost of self-cultivation will also increase. " Zhao jinhou said.

Zhao Jinhou further pointed out that the current GM policy will have a great impact on the pattern of planting industry, especially on the seed sector, which will bring about major changes in the industry.

"At present, genetically modified seeds are mainly divided into two categories, one is insect-resistant and the other is weed-resistant. Insect resistance can save the cost of pesticides and indirectly increase the yield. Herbicide resistance increases weeding efficiency. " Zhao jinhou said.

Zhao Jinhou said that the progress of science and technology has changed the overall production mode and production mode of planting industry. Therefore, in the process of upgrading and changing the seed industry by transgenic technology, the industry concentration will be inclined to the seed companies with more scientific research strength, and their competitiveness and market share are expected to be further moderately improved.

The increase in pig prices is mainly affected by the supply side, and will continue to rise after the next step of moderate finishing.

In terms of pig price, Zhao Jinhou said that the judgment of the pig price cycle is a hot spot of market concern. The biggest influence factor in the field of pig breeding in recent years is African swine fever.

"From the sporadic appearance in November 2008 to the comprehensive divergence in the first half of 2019, it directly led to the subsequent shortage of pork. Subsequently, the industry began to recover quickly. Evolved to last June, the industry began to go to capacity. " Zhao jinhou said.

Zhao Jinhou pointed out that pig breeding and pig prices can be viewed from a more macro perspective.

"First of all, pig prices are the same as food prices, and supply and demand determine the price. Of course, because pigs can be sold in advance as well as on the fence, there is a game of slaughtering and breeding in the evolution of pig prices. " Zhao jinhou said.

Zhao Jinhou pointed out that generally speaking, the fluctuation of pig price is actually the most sensitive to the fluctuation of supply. Specific to this round of fluctuations, on the one hand, with the nationwide spread of African swine fever in 2019, the entire pig production capacity has decreased sharply. On the other hand, with the increase of pig prices, the state took measures to encourage breeding. By June 2021, the stock of fertile sows reached a high level, and the industry began to reduce production capacity.

At present, the rise of pig price is mainly caused by three factors. First of all, it is the supply side. Last year, the effect of reducing the number of sows began to be transmitted. In January this year, the number of piglets began to decrease. Furthermore, the output of commercial pigs has also dropped to a higher level.

"Secondly, it is the sales side. In the first quarter, the amount of live pigs slaughtered was still very high. However, due to the market expectation that the pig price will fall before the Spring Festival, the staged pork supply will be reduced. The superposition of national storage and storage, although not large, further reduces supply. " Zhao jinhou pointed out.

Zhao Jinhou said that in this case, pig breeding enterprises and farmers are optimistic about the short term, and they will be reluctant to sell and press the bar, which will lead to a decrease in supply. Pig price in such a game, there will be a "one price a day."

"Next, whether it is pressing the bar or reluctant to sell, it will always be sold. In the future, as the weather turns cold, the increase in consumption will stimulate the demand for pork, and it will take time for the slaughter to pick up. Therefore, after the current pig price rises ahead of schedule, there may be moderate consolidation in the future. But after finishing, the price will continue to rise upwards. At the same time, under the influence of pressure and reluctance to sell, the rhythm of lifting will be uneven. " Zhao jinhou judged.

Active de-capacity is coming to an end.

In terms of de-capacity, Zhao Jinhou said that the de-capacity logic of the pig breeding sector in May was somewhat lower than expected, mainly due to two factors.

"On the one hand, it is because the investment and financing amount of pig breeding is very large, and the digitalization and intelligence of modern pig farms are very high. The production capacity in this area can not be withdrawn casually like free-range farming. Therefore, these capacity increases will be at least until the end of this year. " Zhao jinhou said.

On the other hand, Zhao Jinhou pointed out that in 2020, domestic imported breeding pigs hit a record high and were put into production. Therefore, from the protection level of piglets, the production capacity is also upgrading.

"After May of this year, the number of fertile sows has no longer declined. It can be said that the initiative of enterprises to go to production capacity is coming to an end." Zhao jinhou said.

The recovery of pig price and the improvement of profit are certain expectations, and the fluctuation range of pig price will be appropriately smooth in the future.

In terms of investment in the pig breeding sector, Zhao Jinhou believes that in the future, it will not be possible to make relevant investments completely according to the logic of the cycle.

"At present, many pig breeding enterprises are doing an extension of the industrial chain, and the terminal is a food company. Therefore, there will be no great isolation in the industrial chain, and the game between them will be less. " Zhao jinhou pointed out.

Zhao Jinhou further pointed out that with the rise of some large pig breeding enterprises, it will be more and more difficult for new companies to enter the leading echelon in the context of increasing industrial capital and technology intensity.

"Therefore, in this round of capitalization and scale-up, after the leap-forward development of pig breeding, the future industry concentration will be further enhanced, and the fluctuation range of pig prices will be appropriately smooth." Zhao jinhou said.

Generally speaking, it is a certain expectation that the pig price in the pig breeding sector will continue to rise and the profit will improve. For the pig breeding sector in 2022, it is optimistic as a whole.

The pet food track has a good prospect but fierce competition, and chicken and eel farming are expected to recover.

In terms of investment, Zhao Jinhou said that this year marks the 30th anniversary of the establishment of Shenwan Hongyuan Research Institute. Thanks to the profound research skills, brand advantages and long-term mutual trust with customers accumulated over the years, it has a securities research service team of over 300 people, covering 900 listed companies at home and abroad.

"In many research fields, Shenwan Hongyuan Research Institute has built a full-cycle talent training system, including a full range of talent development outlines, a comprehensive training curriculum framework, phased training projects, teaching systems, supporting talent development guarantee systems and competition mechanisms, which have consolidated the foundation of team sustainable development and trained many investment and research professionals for the industry." Zhao jinhou said.

As far as the subdivision of agriculture is concerned, Zhao Jinhou pointed out that it is undeniable that pet food has been a good track in the past two years, with huge consumption and market space, but the competition is also fierce.

"At present, there is no absolute leader in the pet food industry. In the future, the industrial foundation is relatively good, and the competitive advantages of related enterprises that have been supported by overseas export business are expected to be further highlighted. The marketing brand built entirely by capital, if there is no follow-up financial support, will have a high probability of clearing out. " Zhao jinhou said.

At the same time, Zhao Jinhou pointed out that chicken prices are expected to recover after a long period of downturn. At the same time, eel farming is also worthy of attention.

"In addition, the promotion of genetically modified seeds and the research and development of new African swine fever vaccines in animal vaccines, which will have major changes in the industry, also contain certain investment opportunities."

Zhao Jinhou (qualification number: A0230511040007) Main viewpoints are based on the report: Focus: Price Rising Drives Performance Growth-Mid-term Investment Strategy of Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery Industry in 2022, June 30, 2022.

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The active/passive safety configuration of BMW X3 is complete, includingAutomatic parking、Zero tire pressure endurance tire、Automatic parking、Steep slope descent、hill start assist control、knee airbag、HUD head-up display、Anti-lock braking (ABS)、Braking force distribution (EBD/CBC, etc.)、Brake assist (EBA/BAS, etc.)、Traction control (ASR/TCS, etc.)、Active noise reduction、Engine start and stop、Side safety air curtain、Wireless charging of mobile phone、night vision system、LED daytime running lights、Forward reversing radar、Tire pressure monitoring、Steering wheel heating、Body stability control (ESP/DSC, etc.)、Rear reversing radar、Fatigue reminder、Remote parking、Child seat interface、Lane keeping (LKAS)Equal configuration.

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In order to get a more comprehensive and objective understanding of BMW X3, you can go to the BMW X3 forum and browse the messages of users who have bought the car in history.